Can Coaching Fight Recession?

Your comment that maybe the media is talking us into a recession is somewhat thin on the ground.

We are at present creating a time in history that will take the world thousands of years to heal and are we in a recession yes we are, are we heading to a depression, yes we are.

Mindlessness is sitting doing dope and watching television, something that the world is inclined to do and miss the real indicators of what is going on. Consumerism is not a satisfying life at all, the majority of people go to work to feed consumerism and cant wait for Friday, President Bush says that we 'Cant let the terrorists frighten the tourists, so that we cant shop'.

Milton Freidman said once that 'Only a crisis actual or perceived produces real change' and how right he is, in fact that crisis is playing out before our very eyes right now and yet doped up with alcohol and television both people and the business sector do not notice.

We are facing the crisis of Peak Oil, Dr Colin Campbell a whistleblower and Exploration manager of Amoco rightly has said in the past that there are no Politicians, there are no experts, who can say what lies ahead, who can say what we should or should not do, we are left with a very scary vacuum, we are to experience a future of new paradigms…

So you think we are not in a recession, The production decline of oil is the telling point, this has triggered a major recession which has dampened demand and taken pressure off prices, we see it right now how a recession has been brought on by expensive oil…then the lowering of prices due to demand slackening.. Then another price shock, followed by an even deeper recession until finally a permanent depression…

To constantly consume is total madness, what percentage of goods consumed do you think are truly necessary?

North American people use 5 times more oil than Mexicans, 10 times more than Chinese, and 30 times more than people in India, surely it has to stop somewhere, we cant continue to use the world resources as if there is a finite supply..

Global economic collapse is on the way, no surer thing, no soft landings, just a hard fall, the mantra until today has been to 'Love this company'…love this business like it is your own family. our world leaders love to encourage sources that produce wealth. at whose expense, at what expense.

Politics as usual, business as usual, and so it goes on and on except we don’t have cheap oil anymore, cheap energy to pull us out of recessions, the depression of the 30's ended because we had cheap oil. what do we have now…zilch, nothing, the good days are over my friend.

Its getting to the stage whereby primitiveness is inspiring, inviting,..I don’t want a fancy car and a fancy house anymore, I want a simple fulfilled life. how many want that I wonder as the crunch comes even closer and closer.

How close are the public to acknowledging exactly what the ramifications of Peak Oil are, I mean when exactly is it going to pervade public conscience so that they truly know what it means, the volatile few years we are experiencing right now before the decline really sets in hard and people are going to ask..'what happened, how did this happen'…'how did this truly happen to us. they better wake up and smell the roses and recognize that is it starting to happen now…and you say there is no recession. wake up and smell the roses yourself…BBC only this morning announced that Japan is in Trouble economically. the powerful Japan is being brought to its knees the business sector is worried, not enough orders coming in to utilize the staff, the buildings, not a recession you say. its invented by the media is it…..however lets look at the price of oil and how it has doubled in the last year, so if the costs increase and double to run a businesses, does that not mean hardship. or am I dumb. I don’t think so…..yes I am a business woman and I have woken up and smelled the roses….it does not take a rocket scientist to work out exactly what was to happen when oil went past $80 per barrel…or does it need a lot of working out for some people..??

Oil is a dying industry and yet we are dependent on cheap energy….volatility is on the increase due to peak oil. even the tiniest demographic problem and any geopolitical unrest will send prices soaring, if there is abundant oil this would not happen, a shock in one part of the system, will effect the whole system, no one is independent. no one.!!

There is only one thing now that will keep the price of oil down and that is recessions and depressions, the sooner we face reality the less painful reality will be, and if we leave problems unattended, if we leave them unaddressed then they will destroy society…remember. Unless you have oil you will not find it…

Governments don’t want to be publicly associated with Peak Oil, why, because it is politically impossible to approach a subject that does not have answers, it is politically impossible to make statements about which you do not know a definite outcome, its like avoiding chaos. and carrying on as usual until chaos catches up and nothing can be avoided.

Energy supply drops but will population numbers, a dramatic situation is unfolding before our very eyes.

And yes the businesses that become energy wise will be the winners thats for sure…. No business can get instructions about how to perform in the future, because no one effectively knows the future, simply because we don’t hold the stop watch…

Once a resource is 50% used it has peaked, we are now going down the other side. the day that there is less oil to use today than what we used yesterday is the day to start to face reality in a very big way.

Hi Lila,

I welcome your passionate views, too many people have lost that internal fire that inspires and motivates. I don't entirely disagree with your perspectives, but I'm not in accord with them either. Let me explain why…

Firstly, my blog is aimed directly at small to medium businesses and my goal here is to help my readers to avoid getting the recession mindset. By behaving differently it is possible for a business to work more profitably, to get more customers, to make more money.

The fact that the world economy is having a down cycle is not in dispute - it is clearly happening. Does that mean that every business has to do the same? Nope. There are plenty of examples of companies bucking the trend by operating smartly during past recessions. There will be examples again from the coming problems. My role is to help my clients achieve the same.

I am not going to get into the politics of this, that's not my purpose or expertise. However, I will say that in around 1973, a group of experts met to forecast oil reserves and warned that there was only enough left for another 20 years. In the 90's they did the same. They were wrong.

Why? Because they did not take into account the changes in technology that now see cars travelling twice as far per gallon and so on. The oil producers are quite happy to let the world believe just how scarce their product is in order to allow prices to drive high.

Global warming is happening and we are accelerating it. There is a natural cycle of ice age and meltdowns, we've made it happen faster and will experience the changes during the next 100 years. I hope this will teach mankind to be better custodians of the planet.

Lee

YOu are wrong, the wording is not that we were going to run out of oil, we were going to run out of cheap oil..we will never, ever run out of oil, that is impossible.

Once production hits 50%, then millions of litres of water is used to bring the rest of the oil to the surface, we can still be extracting oil in 5000 if we live to tell the tail, however once the easy oil is out, which was what was predicted then it gets to the stage whereby the costs to extract are more than can be made.

For example, Tar Sands, they have been known about for a long long time, and thought that the Tar Sands could never be extracted, however it was widely known that oil would have to go over $80 per barrell to afford to extract Tar Sands, the explorers of the day and the workers in the field never ever thought that oil would reach $80 to allow this.

Easy, sweet, crude is what was predicted to end and it has done precisely that, once water levels increase, so do costs, we are now discovering 1 barrel for every 5 we use, and no matter what form of energy we use in the future the sheer amount/demand will never be filled by anything else this has been talked about ad-finitum…

So now that the easy sweet crude is gone do you not realise the ramifications of that and the simple fact that only..and only..ONLY recessions and depressions can dampen demand, thus bringing prices back to an affordable level.

Yes many businesses can downsize, I have owned several small to medium businesses in my life, that is easy, you can coach all you like, however you miss the point that we are moving into unknown territory, only very clever energy wise businesess will survive and yes they have to take measures to keep up, unfortunately though you cannot paint a world with rose coloured glasses, you cannot make this sound as simple as you are, I encourage, and do encourage my clients, who are small to medium business sector to be extremely careful, I am a marketer by trade, it is my job to encourage everyone right now to be extremely careful.

You are facing very very unknown territory and I applaude you for doing what you can, however ensure that what you speak about is taking every single paradigm into account, global, local, and ensuring that most of the businesses do realise that we have to move back to local, we need to ensure that the picture of old style business resumes, maybe looking at the small town service as opposed to large, taking into account that once we lived in 5 square miles and now we have to look back to community and 5 square miles, I beg of you to envisage a smaller community life and yes certainly we do need to have every aspect of the business sector out there that can service the community, but look very deep at the future, dont just look at the surface and think business as usual because business as usual simply will not happen.

Already and still many people are still taking out massive loans, we need to think dept free and as soon as possible.

Lila.

Lila,

I think we may have to agree to disagree on this. You clearly have very passionate views on this and a depth of knowledge about the different types of oil, technologies currently used to extract them and a view on what this means. I'm equally convinced the other way.

Technology changes so fast that we will see a lot more achieved than we could have imagined in many, many fields.

I have no idea what impact nano-technology will have on oil production and oil usage, but I can guarantee it will be huge. Can you imagine tiny robots scrubbing the oil off the sand? No, nor can I - but it's possible. And it's possible it could be done very cheaply, eventually.

Any new technology is very expensive initially, every technology starts out that way. Powerful laptop computers can be bought for £300-£400 today, yet 20 years ago a mobile phone was £1,500. A commercial space tourism service is about to start thanks to technological advancement with trips for £100,000 or so. It cost the USSR a lot more to put Yuri Gagarin up there in the 1950's.

As far as saving money goes, that's a secondary cause of recession in itself. The money supply is about flow of money, not about mountains of the stuff locked in banks. A recession occurs when there's a huge shift in the money supply and it becomes unbalanced. It has to flow again for things to get done.

If oil prices do indeed stay very high, people will have to cut down in other areas and we'll see shifts happen. If I could predict the future as certainly as you are, I'd be worth billions by now. But I simply don't believe it's as horrific as your predictions state.

As I started out, I think we may have to agree to disagree here - we've got diametrically opposing views and neither of us are likely to shift.

Lee

You are running blind my freind, you say you are a business advisor, what is the no 1 earner for the world, take tourism out of London and what do you have, even reduce it by 10% and what do you have.
Take tourism out of New York, even 5% and what will happen, remove even 2% of tourism from Paris or Rome and what are the ramifications.
Now come to the realisation that, this is exactly what is playing out before our very eyes, think truly hard on this aspect, dont think surface, think deeply, I truly wonder if you really do realise the impact of what is playing out before our very eyes, I am probably far older than you, been around the traps longer than you, I dont know, however right now is the time to think like you have never thought before.

You say that Technology will save us, sorry my freind it is too late for technology, the sheer statistical nightmare that is, is overwhelming, I could point you in a myriad of directions to look at, to investigate, I belong to a circle which is huge and we fully realise the ramifications of what is to come..

Before you even begin to advise the business sector, I implore you to search deeper as far as facts are concerned, to fully realise the implications of our sliding global economy, we will never see what has gone before…..we are headed into unknown territory, you and I, and most of us, no brochures, no consultants to lean on, for the first time in humanity we face the unknown to a large extent, however Peak Oil preparedness is very vital at this stage..

And there are other concerns, not the least of which are the staggering financial implications, for example:

* The total value of US based mortgage bonds is $10.4 trillion, 30% of which is expected to be lost in property defaults and devaluation (3.2 trillion in losses).

* Trillions more are likely to evaporate from related derivative markets (which total 540 trillion).

To put those enormous figures in perspective, US GDP is 15 trillion; the total world GDP 48 trillion, according to the World Bank. The world is teetering into another Great Depression, resulting in bank and currency failures.

Once we get over the shock of the recognition of this information, and many of us here have already gone through much of the process of integrating this information, the question is:

How can we use this information of looming crisis strategically to ease the transition and make the end result more satisfactory for people and planet?

Hi Lee.

Ok lets agree to disagree, however before I go I would like you to consider a few things to maybe pass onto your clients in the small to med business sector, this all may sound a bit far fetched but it is not…

1. Growing food, mainly organics, collectively or singularly, I know this may sound a bit small and trife but it is a business area that will become highly important, when Cuba lost 50% of its oil in the 80's food became the most important issue and always will be, but not 2000 mile ceasar salads…locally grown.

2. Any business that can be opened or a new target market formed that will include Repairing, reusing, restoring, rebuilding, insulation, and if necessary recycling, recycling will become a very important issue.

3. Teach the business sector to buy whereever second hand, learn to become second hand minded, I know this goes against the grain of the business sector, however many things that pertain to business can be second hand…try to avoid buying new

4. Go Tribal, I dont mean literally go tribal, but make your buysiness sector realise that now connections are the most important issue, remmbering that we need to cushion the effects as the institurions that run our society start to fail (central and local politics), banks, commerce, police etc.

5. Ask your business sector to completely fall in love with the community and landbase, ask them to source what they can locally and if they cant start to at least create awareness of local sourcing…and then defend those sources and stay loyal to those sources, I am sure you understand the meaning of that, it is hightly important.

6. Ask the business sector and representatives to break peoples faith int eh culture of Global industry, bring urgency to this, the effects of losing global will be immence, so therefore the business that can be local, source local, be energy effective, will be the winner, but they must begin to think local….we must decolonise our minds away from importing and start to realise the truth in purchasing local…..

7.Ensure that every single business realises that to begin to be successful locally means a powerful mindshift away from Global…..we must rebuild locally and to think back to pre oil if possible it is not to hard to envisage the main street, the way the business sector used to operate, mum and dads store..we simply cannot depend on global..we must wind down…

Finally I will ask you to read the following and please do not ignore the words…Lila.

Guy R. McPherson
University of Arizona professor
Apr. 6, 2008 12:00 AM

M. King Hubbert, a petroleum geologist employed by Shell Oil Co., described peak oil in 1956. Production of crude oil, like the production of many non-renewable resources, follows a bell-shaped curve. The top of the curve is termed “peak oil,” or “Hubbert’s peak,” and it represents the halfway point for production.

The bell-shaped curve applies at all levels, from field to country to planet. After discovery, production ramps up relatively quickly. But when the light, sweet crude on top of the field runs out, increased energy and expense are required to extract the underlying heavy, sour crude. At some point, the energy required to extract a barrel of oil exceeds the energy contained in barrel of oil, so the pumps shut down.

Most of the world’s oil pumps are about to shut down.

We have sufficient supply to keep the world running for 30 years or so, at the current level of demand. But that’s irrelevant because the days of inexpensive oil are behind us. And the American Empire absolutely demands cheap oil. Never mind the 3,000-mile Caesar salad to which we’ve become accustomed. Cheap oil forms the basis for the 12,000-mile supply chain underlying the “just-in-time” delivery of plastic toys from China.

There goes next year’s iPod. In 1956, Hubbert predicted the continental United States would peak in 1970. He was correct, and the 1970s gave us a small, temporary taste of the socio political and economic consequences of expensive oil.

We passed the world oil peak in 2005, and we’ve been easing down the other side by acquiring oil at the point of a gun – actually, guns are the smallest of the many weapons we’re using – paying more for oil and destroying one culture after another as the high price of crude oil forces supply disruptions and power outages in Third World countries.

The world peaked at 74.3 million barrels per day in May 2005. The two-year decline to 73.2 million barrels per day produced a doubling of the price of crude. Later this year, we fall off the oil-supply cliff, with global supply plummeting below 70 million barrels/day. Oil at merely $100 per barrel will seem like the good old days.

Within a decade, we’ll be staring down the barrel of a crisis: Oil at $400 per barrel brings down the American Empire, the project of globalization and water coming through the taps. Never mind happy motoring through the never-ending suburbs in the Valley of the Sun. In a decade, unemployment will be approaching 100 percent, inflation will be running at 1,000 percent and central heating will be a pipe dream. In short, this country will be well on its way to the post-industrial Stone Age.

After all, no alternative energy sources scale up to the level of a few million people, much less the 6.5 billion who currently occupy Earth. Oil is necessary to extract and deliver coal and natural gas. Oil is needed to produce solar panels and wind turbines, and to maintain the electrical grid.

Ninety percent of the oil consumed in this country is burned by airplanes, ships, trains and automobiles. You can kiss goodbye groceries at the local big-box grocery store: Our entire system of food production and delivery depends on cheap oil.

If you’re alive in a decade, it will be because you’ve figured out how to forage locally.

The death and suffering will be unimaginable. We have come to depend on cheap oil for the delivery of food, water, shelter and medicine. Most of us are incapable of supplying these four key elements of personal survival, so trouble lies ahead when we are forced to develop means of acquiring them that don’t involve a quick trip to Wal-Mart.

On the other hand, the forthcoming cessation of economic growth is truly good news for the world’s species and cultures. In addition, the abrupt halt of fossil-fuel consumption may slow the warming of our planetary home, thereby preventing our extinction at our own hand.

Our individual survival, and our common future, depends on our ability to quickly make other arrangements. We can view this as a personal challenge, or we can take the Hemingway out. The choice is ours.

For individuals interested in making other arrangements, it’s time to start acquiring myriad requisite skills. It is far too late to save civilization for 300 million Americans, much less the rest of the planet’s citizens, but we can take joy in a purpose-filled, intimate life.

It’s time to push away from the shore, to let the winds of change catch the sails of our leaky boat.

It’s time to trust in ourselves, our neighbours and the Earth that sustains us all.

Painful though it might be, it’s time to abandon the cruise ship of empire in exchange for a lifeboat.

——————————————————————————–

PEAK OILD SCENARIO PAINTS FRIGHTENING FUTURE FOR ALL
By Guy R. McPherson – Tucson, Arizona – Published: 03.28.2007

By day, Chris conducts research in conservation biology and prepares for the intellectually demanding exams required of doctoral students. At home in the evening with his wife and 2-year-old daughter, he teaches himself to create fire by rubbing sticks together.

Chris is one of the graduate students with whom I am fortunate to work, and he has wisely chosen to live in two worlds. The first is the overindulged culture of make-believe in which most Americans are comfortably ensconced; the second is the real world of peak oil. World oil production reached a peak in 2005 at 85 million barrels per day. We’ve been easing down the bell-shaped oil-supply curve, losing production slowly and gradually. Next year we will fall off the oil-supply cliff, with an average daily production of less than 78 million barrels.

The response of the Bush administration has been to go to war to get oil. Thus far, we’ve exchanged considerable blood and $500 billion for a couple million barrels of oil each day. By controlling the Iraqi government, we’ve also assured a place at the OPEC table. Mission accomplished for the oilman in the Oval Office means sustaining the American Dream one barrel at a time.

By 2015, when world demand is projected to exceed 120 million barrels per day, world supply will drop below 65 million barrels. The double-digit inflation and double-digit unemployment of the 1970s, a predictable result of the continental United States passing the oil peak, will seem like the good old days. For that matter, so will the Great Depression. Seems the American Dream, rooted in the suburbs and propped up by cheap gasoline, could transform itself into the American Nightmare. The Star’s new Interstate 10 widening blog, called Gridlocked, will be revealed as the chimera it is.

Oil priced at $100 per barrel represents serious sand in the economic gears of empire. Imagine what happens when demand outstrips supply by a factor of two or more, and oil is priced at $400 per barrel. Because this country mainlines oil, it is easy to envision the complete collapse of the U.S. economy within a decade.

Because all energy sources are derived from oil, the implications for the Old Pueblo are particularly grim: delivery of water, food and air conditioning depend on ready supplies of cheap oil.

Peak oil is the greatest challenge humanity has ever faced. If World War II rates a 1 on a scale of 1 to 10, global warming is a 3 and peak oil is a 12. Most experts who write about peak oil predict complete economic collapse within a decade, followed shortly thereafter by anarchy.

Although we could employ a variety of conservation measures to mitigate the impacts of ever-decreasing supplies of oil, no politician would propose such a career-ending strategy. After all, conservation went out of style in the early 1980s when Ronald Reagan ripped the solar panels off the White House and trumpeted economic growth as our only god.

According to Reagan’s campaign slogan, it was “morning in America,” so I suppose he thought future generations wouldn’t need electricity.

Now what? It’s time to start making other arrangements, the kind that do not include cars, airplanes and the delivery of cheap plastic crap to a Wal-Mart near you. It’s time, in other words, to start living in the real world.

Take a page from Chris: Start learning skills for a post-carbon world. If you can find a way to do something practical and useful on a smaller scale than it is currently being done, you are likely to be well-fed and even revered in your local community.

If that community is Tucson, I recommend you learn how to harvest water, grow edible crops and get along with your ill-prepared neighbors when it’s 100 degrees and the calendar says summer is still around the corner.

——————————————————————————–

LIVE TALK WEDNESDAY, APRIL 9, 2008
GUEST: PROFESSOR GUY MCPHERSON
Joe Garcia – The Arizona Republic – Apr. 9, 2008 10:46 AM

LIVE TALK GUEST: Guy R. McPherson, professor of conservation biology at the University of Arizona.

Dr. McPherson has a bachelor’s degree in forest resources from the University of Idaho, a master’s degree in range science from Texas Tech University and a doctorate in range science from Texas Tech. He is the author or co-author of such books as “Living with Fire: Fire Ecology and Policy for the Twenty-first Century,” “Letters to a Young Academic: Seeking Teachable Moments,” “Killing the Natives: Has the American Dream Become a Nightmare” and “Ecology and Management of North American Savannas.” He also serves on a number of scientific and environmental advisory boards.

Read the Q&A, comment at end of story.

Welcome to aztalk Live Talk Wednesday with Professor Guy R. McPherson.

Q: In your April 6 Sunday Viewpoints essay (www.viewpoints.com), you say some pretty frightening things: $400 for a barrel of oil soon, our oil supply running out altogether in 30 years, the modern world coming to a screeching halt because of lack of energy. How much of this do you actually believe, and how much is a scare tactic to get our attention?

A: I believe everything I wrote. I am trying to inform people, not scare them. I do not benefit from peak oil or spreading the word about it. Indeed, it will cost me my 401k, my 403b, and the job I love, and writing about it has been costly to my so-called career. And then there’s the consequent hate mail…

However, one minor correction: I indicated the current supply of oil would be exhasted in about 30 years at current levels of demand, but demand destruction will certainly result from high prices (this is already occurring in “third world” countries and for many people in the U.S.). As a result, I suspect we’ll be pulling oil out of the ground as long as people occupy the planet.

My estimate for $400 oil within a decade comes from these sources: Hubbert’s model predicts we’ll be producing about 60 million barrels per day in 2018, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts global demand at about 110 million barrels per day by then. The French investment bank Ixis-CIB forecasts $380 oil in 2015, so my estimate is relatively conservative.

Q: All three presidential candidates – Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton and Republican John McCain – are in favor of energy diversification and committed to battling global warming. So aren’t we, as a nation, finally getting on the right track?

A: First and foremost, all three viable candidates support economic growth,which strongly depends on the use of oil. They all support increasing efficiency, but not conservation. Conservation is political suicide, as Jimmy Carter discovered. The track we’re on is a monorail with a cliff at the end.

Q: What needs to happen to avoid a complete meltdown of the “American Empire,” as you call it? And do you believe there is still time to avoid what you refer to as “the post-industrial Stone Age”?

A: First, let me explain Empire: We exploit humans and resources, often with extreme violence, to provide Americans with indulgences beyond belief to most people.

Had we started the project of powering down at least 30 years ago, there might still be time. At this point, I cannot imagine any steps that could allow us to avoid a meltdown of the economy or a relatively rapid transition into the post-industrial Stone Age. We depend on abundant, inexpensive oil for delivery of food, water, shelter, and health care. The days of abundant, inexpensive oil are behind us. American Empire will soon run its course.

I am hopeful we can save a few tens of millions of Americans. But we will need to make massive changes in our entire way of life, starting immediately. We must abandon the project of globalization and its attendant indulgences, for example, and focus on saving lives. The difficulties inherent in delivering our food, water, shelter, and health care in the absence of fossil fuels create a daunting set of challenges, to say the least. Roscoe Bartlett, who co-chairs the Peak Oil Caucus in the U.S. House of Representatives, says the task is analogous to putting a man on the moon. A more appropriate analogy is a large human colony on Jupiter. In any event, this will not be easy.

Q: What personal measures do you take for conservation? And what personal measures do you recommend others take as a way to individually contribute to a sustainable energy future? And does it really matter or must everything be done on a grander, global scale?

A: I drive a compact, hybrid-electric car. I live in a small, old rental house less than two blocks from the University of Arizona, where I work. I buy only what I need, and I check labels with care. I avoid eating meat because vegetarianism saves water and energy. I use compact-fluourscent bulbs in my house. And so on, totaling dozens or perhaps hundreds of daily decisions.

Ultimately, none of these actions matter at all. My lifestyle has virtually no impact on the global system. I’d be willing to bet the U.S. military uses more oil in a weekend than I will use in my entire life, and corporate CEOs and politicians who control this country are firmly committed to maintaining the status quo, regardless of the costs to us, other cultures and species, or future generations.

Q: Are you a firm believer in solar energy? They say the technology isn’t quite there yet, but perhaps if the investment happens the technology will follow? Arizona seems to be missing out on a possible bright future here, if you pardon the pun.

A: I was a firm believer in solar, wind, and geothermal energy until a few years ago, and I still believe they will help individuals. But no combination of these “renewable” technologies will make a notable difference at the level of 300 million Americans, much less the 6.5 people in the world. Consider the vaunted Canadian tar sands, for example: They currently use abundant energy and clean water to produce less than 2 million barrels of oil each day, and the goal is to reach nearly 5 million barrels per day by 2020. We currently produce more than 70 million barrels per day at the global level, and demand is outstripping supply. By 2020, demand is projected at more than 110 million barrels per day. The wished-for 5 million barrels per day from the tar sands is a drop in the ocean, too little and too late to prevent our descent into the Stone Age.

Q: Will we ever get away from oil? It’s still a relatively cheap way to produce and use such energy – and a lot of folks are getting rich. Oil companies made record profits last year, and I don’t see any movement to remove oil companies from federal tax breaks and subsidies. Plus, almost everything we own and use needs oil to run it…

A: I think humans will be using oil as long as we occupy the planet. Had we leveled the playing field between heavily subsidized fossil fuels and renewables several decades ago, we could have used oil for important tasks, such as manufacturing solar panels, wind turbines, and railroad tracks with electric rails. Instead, we built suburbia, subsidized consumption of fossil fuels, and ripped the solar panels off the White House. In short, we doggedly pursued economic growth as our only god.

Q: What about drilling in Alaska wilderness refuge and more off-shore drilling? Would this help America’s supply of oil? Or would this just delay the inevitable?

A: These sources comprise part of the roughly 1 trillion barrels of oil remaining on Earth, but they are relatively small amounts. They would delay the inevitable by a few months, at most.

Q: One option, surprisingly, you don’t mention is war over oil. There is the belief out there that if worse comes to worst, America will secure its oil supply through military means with “national security” being the justification. Your thoughts, or are we talking about World War III?

A: Actually, I hinted about war with my statement about acquiring oil at the point of a gun. We’ve been using our military to secure fossil fuels, including oil, at least as far back as World War II. The well-respected historian Howard Zinn connects the dots very well with respect to World War II. More recently, Alan Greenspan noted in his recent book that the occupation of Iraq is about oil. I have no doubt we will continue to use our military might to secure oil, and we will be joined by other nations. Currently, we spend more money on our military than all other nations combined, so we will continue to be “best” at using our military muscle to acquire vital resources.

Q: Not a word in your essay about Iraq either. Does that mean you don’t subscribe to the theory that the war was about oil to begin with? Or perhaps just the beginning of military options?

A: Iraq was not the first war we fought to secure oil. It will not be the last. Most Americans do not want to know where the oil comes from: Ignorance is bliss, after all.

Q: So, at the end of the day, are your optimistic or pessimistic about the energy prospects for America? Will the cavalry swoop in and save us at the last minute, and who exactly is that cavalry?

A: There is no cavalry. No alternatives scale, and we’re out of time. We made the important decision about energy policy at two critical junctures in American history: (1) shortly after WWII, when we created the interstate highway system and the suburbs to build a way of life that had no future because it relied completely on ready supplies of a finite resource, and (2) in 1980, when we dismissed conservation at irrelevant – I guess we didn’t think we needed lights any more, because it was “morning in America.”

Q: Any message to America as we approach Earth Day, which is coming up April 22? Anything other than gloom and doom, I mean? Is “bloom” anywhere in that equation?

A: Absolutely. This is wonderful news on many levels. Passing the world oil peak means the world economy will collapse, thereby giving other cultures and species an opportunity to persist a few more years. Economic growth is tightly linked to extinction rates, so the forthcoming Greatest Depression is great news from the other occupants of planet Earth.

In fact, it is becoming increasingly clear that we will fail to voluntarily prevent frying the planet beyond the point of habitability. But peak oil forces us to stop burning fossil fuels, which might give us a chance, as a species, to squeeze through the global-change bottleneck. Peak oil is the last chance for our species, and many, many others with which we share the planet.

Thus, if you care about other species, or even about our species, peak oil is good news. However, if you’re like most humans, you care a lot more about yourself and your loved ones than about people you don’t know and especially future generations. And that’s how we got into this mess.

GOOD BYE AND GOOD LUCK FOR THE FUTURE LEE……

Wow Lila,

Some great thoughts there, and many I'd agree with in terms of tips for small business

I shall have a more careful look through that long comment before coming back with some thoughts on that.  Might even make a good topic for another post!

Best wishes,

Lee

 

Now Lee with the greatest of respect…who mentioned who in whos Blog…here is what you wrote about me…

Meanwhile Lilamay's posting World Recession From Global Warming and Peak Oil is one of many doom and gloom blog postings that I'd suggest you take with a pinch of salt. While the global economy may struggle, the strong business can survive and thrive by doing more of the right things.

I did not come to your blog and start raving on ..instead you mentioned me as a person who had a gloom and doom blog..those are your words, so as far as I am concerned those words allow me right of reply, do they not…are you saying that it is alright for you to have an opinion about me and what I say but I am not allowed an opinion in return….

Tutt..tutt..tutt Lee….you must never stoop to that level whereby there is lack of transparency in anything, to attempt to shut someone up with no right of reply, no matter how long that reply is..is surely denegrating a person and calling them something less than a snail under a rock..

You have your opinions, you allowed me to be mentioned in your words so therefore you opened the door on a very important issue that will change the face of the world as we know it…

There is a saying Lee and it goes like this….Tell people what they want to know and they will be happy, tell them what they dont want to know and they will not listen…now who said that I wonder…..

Am I telling you things that you dont want to know by any chance, if so then I feel very sorry for you and what is more I feel even more sorry for the small to medium business sector that you are attemptingh to service..you cannot possibly talk about up coming recessions or the big depression on the way unless you know the very important facts..what you are doing is pretending to know, pretending to help the business sector when you are not aware of the very important paradigms facing us in this global economy…I suspect that you have your head in the ground and all you are doing is attempting to make money as opposed to truly being there for your clients..if you truly want to make a difference then make a difference..

However do not attempt to shut out very important facts.. I am merely a woman replying to your very early words….

I am no gloom and doom merchant, I watch world politics very closely, I watch like a hawk global economies, I am very very aware of many things of which you are apparently not..

So I am merely trying to help…….not hinder..

As I said Lee in my last message..

GOODBYE AND GOOD LUCK FOR THE FUTURE……

Lila.

OH sorry Lee just one more thing

The media is covering up the depression on the way not causing a recession..they are talking it down..

Think about it..what major media organisation wants the public to know the truth, ITS LESS MONEY FOR THEM and they run on bucks..the media IS A MONEY MACHINE..AND will do all in its machine to hide the truth…;

the media is corporate money.big money…..corporations run the world, not small to medium businesses.nor governments..search out the owners of the media and you will find big money…however 80% of the business world is small to medium…so who are the losers..not the corporates.??

Good bye……Lila.